In August, international crude oil prices turned down, but there were foreign oil companies including Shell and ExxonMobil on the lubricants market. They announced one-time distributors' price increase for their lubricants products. The industry believes that the price increase of lubricants is due to the increase in the prices of raw materials such as base oils and additives. However, there are different opinions on whether the domestic lubricants that occupy most of the domestic market share will follow up the price adjustment.
On August 5, Shell first proposed that the price of finished lubricants be increased by 5% from September 19th, and certain products under certain circumstances will be outside of the quota; subsequently, Ashland, Castrol and Kang Both Philippine and Exxon Mobil have announced plans to raise prices by 4% to 8%.
In August, international crude oil prices continued to fall, but the price of lubricants rose. This made it difficult for many people, including dealers, to understand. Gu Kaiqian, head of sales at Shanghai Youkai Trading Co., Ltd., said that “previously, the price of lubricants has also risen, but this time the price of oil has fallen, and I don’t know what’s going on.â€
In this regard, the investment adviser chemical researcher Li Jianan believes that the "easy to rise and fall," the price of rigid body performance. He said that due to the impact of crude oil costs, rising labor costs, increased R&D investment in additives, environmental regulations, and market supply and demand, base oil prices have been on the rise. Although there is a certain relationship between the price of lubricating oil and the price of crude oil, due to the lag in price transmission, the current international crude oil price cannot directly affect the price of lubricating oil, and the increase in the price of lubricating oil by foreign companies should not take into account the declining factors of oil prices.
A staff member of the Shanghai Lubricants Industry Association who declined to be named explained the lag in the transmission of lubricating oil to crude oil prices: “Although the cost of base oil accounts for 70% to 90% of the total cost of lubricants, The transmission of crude oil prices lags behind, and the price of lubricant oil also lags behind that of base oil. The price of oil before the price increase has not been balanced with the ever-rising crude oil price.
However, domestic lubricants seem to face the dilemma of price increase, loss of market, and no profit. However, this situation has not been widely recognized in the industry. On the one hand, there are people in the oil industry who have called for "domestic lubricants to dare to raise prices," and relevant members of the China Petroleum Association also implicitly stated to reporters that "in the first half of this year, two lubricants, Kunlun and Great Wall, began to make profits;" There are endless doubts from the industry.
Zhu Chuangkai, researcher of Zhuo Chuang, told the reporter that the FOB price of Dalian Petrochemical 150 SN lubricants was US$1,290/ton, and the FOB price of 400 SN China was US$1,320/ton, which was converted into RMB8,385/ton and RMB8,580/ton respectively. The domestic market price is around 10,400 yuan / ton and 10,800 yuan / ton, "cheap export prices can make money, higher domestic prices can not make money?"
The semi-annual report shows that the price of lubricant oil in the first half of this year increased by 17.4% year-on-year, but sales volume dropped by 6.7% year-on-year.
What is the impact of the surge in prices raised by foreign companies on domestic companies? Li Jianan expects domestic lubricants will also increase prices, taking into account the current high-end market is occupied by foreign brands, price adjustment should not have much impact on its market share.
In this regard, Sun Kai, a researcher at Zhongyu, has different judgments. He said that the market has a self-regulating rule and that the peak demand season in September has arrived. It is expected that the price of lubricant oil will not fall but it will not rise because the price is already at a high level, otherwise it will face greater sales pressure.
It is reported that China is the second largest consumer of lube oil in the world, and the current market supply and demand are basically balanced. Statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission show that in the first half of this year, China's apparent consumption of oil and production increased by 13.5% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year. In the domestic market share of lubricants, China Petroleum and Sinopec accounted for about 60%, local private enterprises accounted for 20%, foreign brands accounted for 20% of the high-end market.
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