Sea freight surging speculation suspect

On September 10, the Baltic Freight Index was reported at 1541, a new high during the year, and rose 7 consecutive days from 1132 on August 30, up 36%. In addition, 1541 points was 2.2 times the low point of 698 that appeared earlier this year.

It is worth noting that from August 30 to September 10, the BCI, which constitutes the Baltic Composite Freight Index, was reported at 3255 on September 10, up 45% from August 30; the Panamax Index ( BPI rose by 30.8% compared with August 30; while the Handicraft Freight Index (BSI) rose by only 2%.

The Capesize vessel is the main ship type for transporting iron ore. Corresponding to the 45% increase in the Capesize index, the export volume of iron ore in Australia and Brazil recently increased significantly, and most of the iron ore was shipped to China.

Data show that in the week of September 4, the export volume of iron ore exports from Australia, Brazil, and India totaled 1979.8 million tons, up 20% from the previous month.

During the week, the export of Australian iron ore was 12.474 million tons, an increase of 31% from the previous month, of which exports to China accounted for 10.142 million tons; while Brazil’s iron ore exports in the week of September 4 were 7.17 million tons, The average level of 5.43 million tons in the first half of this year has increased significantly.

Analyst Yu Chen pointed out that the large-scale mine projects have been gradually expanded and put into operation since the beginning of this year. In the first half of the year, the mine's shipments were generally lower than expected, and the mines further increased their shipments in the second half of the year, so the increase in iron ore traffic volume was obvious.

According to customs data, China imported 73.14 million tons of iron ore in July, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, and an increase of 17.4% from the previous month, setting a record high for iron ore imports in a single month. In addition, China's iron ore imports in August were still as high as 69.01 million tons.

It is reported that Rio Tinto recently announced that its Western Australia expanded port, railroad and mine mining projects on August 24 shipped the first 165,000 Pilbara blended ore (PB ore) iron ore to Tokyo.

According to statistics, Rio Tinto's annual iron ore production capacity in the Pilbara region will increase from 220 million tons to 290 million tons, and expansion projects are expected to be completed in the third quarter. As of the end of June this year, the company's annual production capacity has reached 237 million tons. Rio Tinto said that it is expected that a decision will be made by the end of this year whether to increase the annual iron ore production capacity in the Pilbara region to 360 million tons.

Yu Chen stated that since Brazil’s Vale only exported 138 million tons of iron ore in the first half of the year, there was a gap of 27 million tons in the target amount for half a year, and in order to complete its target export volume of 306 million tons in the second half of the year, Brazil’s Iron ore exports are expected to continue to increase.

However, Yu Chen pointed out at the same time that although the increase in iron ore traffic volume in the second half of the year is certain, the recent increase in ocean freight fees is too large and there are suspicions that the mine is speculative. Freight rates."