2010-2011 Automobile Market Analysis Forecast

1. Analysis of the Automotive Market in 2010

In 2010, it was the second consecutive year of rapid growth for the automotive market in China. There are two main reasons for the rapid growth: First, the economic recovery is strong and the second is policy inertia.

From the perspective of the monthly changes in the characteristics of the curve, the driving force of this round of two consecutive years of high growth is gradually diminishing, and it is necessary to inject new momentum to continue to climb to a new level.

The high growth in 2010 is basically the normal trajectory of the normal years. If there are no particularly large unfavorable factors (including the withdrawal of active policies that play a major role at present), there will be no major downturn in the follow-up market.

However, the passenger vehicles in October and November are higher than the normal seasonal factors, and the short-term factors are not sustainable.

2. Passenger car market forecast for 2011

2.1 Long-term potential growth rate

The passenger car market shifted from the first high-speed growth period to the second high-speed growth period, and the potential growth rate was adjusted from 25% to 15%.

China will spend more time completing this popularization process at a relatively lower speed than Japan and South Korea. The growth rate of domestic demand for passenger vehicles is roughly equivalent to about 1.5 times GDP growth, and 13-15% is a normal level.

The time distribution is high and low.

How is the auto market developing in 2011? First look at the theory of quantitative measurement of demand for passenger cars

2.2 Economic Growth in 2011

This year, the economy as a whole will maintain a growth rate of about 9.5%.

2.3 Policy: Not yet finalized, adjustment is positive

Policy leads to a constant or shift to the right, this is a negative effect, but the impact is small.

in conclusion:

In a comprehensive judgment, the greatest potential for 2011 is to fluctuate little by little from the long-term potential growth rate.

It should be said that it is more likely to be slightly lower than the potential growth rate. After all, the passenger vehicle alone has achieved an increase of more than 6 million vehicles (over 9 million in total) in two years. It needs adjustment and needs cooling.

Moreover, the spontaneous growth force of macroeconomic development has already started, and it does not need to play such a big role in the automotive industry.

(This article is an excerpt from the speech “Development Trends of Macroeconomics and Passenger Cars in 2011” by Mr. Xu Changming, Director of the Information Resource Department of the National Information Center, in Chengdu on December 25, 2010.)