The semi-annual examination of the car market: the multi-brand dealer market is still in the cold winter


Recently, the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as the “Circulation Association”) released the comprehensive sales data of the passenger car market from January to June 2018. Relevant data showed that the domestic passenger vehicle market experienced negative growth in both the same period of last year and the previous quarter, with a year-on-year increase of -3.5% and a sequential growth of -6.6. From January to June, the overall sales volume of passenger vehicles showed a slight increase, up 4.0 from the same period last year. %.

At the same time, the circulation association also released the "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" (hereinafter referred to as "Inventory Early Warning Index"), and the "Inventory Early Warning Index" showed that the automobile dealer inventory warning index was 59.2% in June, an increase from the previous month. 5.5 percentage points, the inventory warning index is on the warning line (50%). In fact, the inventory warning index has been above the warning line for six consecutive months.

Hui Yumei, director of the Industry Coordination Department of China Automobile Dealers Association, said in an interview with the reporter of China Business News, "As we all know, the greater the value of the inventory warning index, the more the market is in a downturn, the smaller the market, the more prosperous. The June inventory warning The index rose month-on-month, indicating that the dealer market is relatively sluggish, and the entire market is showing a downward trend.” Xiao Zhengsan, secretary general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said, “From now on, the auto market is showing a low-speed growth trend. Overall, This year's situation is still quite serious."

Inventory pressure mountain

According to the "Inventory Warning Index" issued by the circulation association, the automobile dealer inventory warning index was 59.2% in June, up 5.5 percentage points from the previous month and up 1 percentage point year-on-year. In this regard, Xiao Zhengsan believes that "this year's auto market has been showing a relatively negative growth trend, in addition to the import tariff reduction, Sino-US trade war, consumers holding money to buy and other factors, dealers increased inventory pressure. "Returning Yumei added, "In the middle of the year, dealers will take the initiative to increase the purchase volume in order to get the rebate, which is one of the reasons for the dealer inventory warning index to rise slightly."

The so-called dealer inventory warning index is obtained through a qualitative survey of dealers to measure the risk of dealer inventory. From the regional index, the Northern Region Index is 57.5%, the Western Region Index is 61.6%, the Southern Region Index is 65.1%, and the Eastern Region Index is 56.6%. Based on the inventory warning index of automobile dealers in four regions, the chain ratio is still on the rise, and the early warning index is all located above the line of glory; not only that, in fact, the warning index of dealers in the four districts in the first half of this year is always higher than the warning line.

From the sub-brand type index, the self-owned brand early warning index is 60.2%, the mainstream joint venture brand early warning index is 60.0%, and the import and luxury car brand early warning index is 55.9%. From the figures, the dealer inventory warning index of each market segment is There are varying degrees of rise. In this regard, "in July, with the listing of some new models of the brand, the market attention will be improved. However, the dealers are still not optimistic about the market. Due to the tariff adjustment of imported cars, customers will wait and see, will adjust in July, import The car pressure is big." Hui Yumei explained.

In addition, the market demand index, average daily sales index, employee index, and operating condition index decreased in June. The relevant person in charge of the circulation association analyzed: In June, the weather in the southern region was hot, and the traffic to the store was reduced; in some areas, there were more customers buying houses, and the car purchase plan was slow; in June, the test month, the candidates for the college entrance examination did not have the energy to watch the car; The market environment is not good due to the reduction of import tariffs and the number of foreign licenses in Beijing. The major brands have a half-year impulse and increase the number of tasks for picking up vehicles; the dealers have high inventory equivalents, large capital occupations, fierce competition in model prices, and low bicycle profits.

In fact, the dealer market has always shown a severe development trend since the beginning of this year. The reporter learned from the Tianjin 4D store of Tianjin Yunda Auto Trading Market, Beijing Beichen Asian Games Village Auto Trading Market and Hebei Langfang Langda Auto Market that the dealers' business situation in the first two quarters was not optimistic, and some dealers' 4S stores said that The performance in the first quarter was relatively flat, but in the second quarter, especially in the past two months, the trend of storefront traffic decreased significantly, and the transaction volume decreased significantly. "According to the association's investigation, the operating level of the automobile circulation market has been rushing since the second quarter of this year." Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said bluntly.

"Compared with last year, this month's monthly sales volume is obviously less than last year. At the worst time, there are less than 200 vehicles. Even if the promotion activities continue, the transaction volume will not increase. So far, there has not been a peak season. The profit level of the store has decreased; The pressure on the inventory is relatively high." The relevant person in charge of a Tianjin Toyota 4S shop in Tianjin Airport East Union said frankly.

From the development of the automobile dealer market in previous years, the situation of clear inventory sales growth will be concentrated in the second half of the year. "However, in the second half of this year, dealers still face half-year impulses of major brands, increasing the number of tasks for picking up trucks; high inventory equivalents of dealers and large capital occupations." At present, dealers are generally not optimistic about the expectations of the follow-up market; the survey data of the association is expected to be significantly worse than June in July.

Poor sales performance

The grim situation in the first half of the year was not only in the dealer market, but for the car companies, the market situation in the first half of the year was not “gentle right”. According to public data, in June, the sales volume of China's passenger car market was 1.687 million units, down 3.1% year-on-year; from January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's passenger car market was 10.974 million units, a slight increase of 4% compared with the same period of last year; As the number of car companies and the number of models are constantly growing, individual car companies have experienced relative growth in the first half of the year, and the market situation is still grim.

In the first half of the year, Mercedes-Benz outperformed Audi and BMW in the first camp of luxury cars, and Audi and BMW ranked second and third. The second camp of luxury cars is still continuing to exert strength, but brands such as Infiniti are relatively poor.

In the first half of the year, the performance of the joint-venture brand market was mixed. In the first half of the year, affected by the Sino-US trade war, the sales of American cars in China were not optimistic. GM’s cumulative sales in China from January to June was 1,844,400 units, up only 4.4% year-on-year. And another American car representative, Ford Motor's performance in China is relatively low, cumulative sales in China from January to June was 400,400 units, down 25% year-on-year.

Contrary to the performance of the American car market in China, the performance of Korean cars in China has picked up. Taking Hyundai Motor as an example, Beijing Hyundai's cumulative sales from January to June was 380,000, a year-on-year increase of 25%. The French car is still in a downturn, and several car companies have seen a downward trend in sales in the first half of the year.

With the release of sales data for various car companies in June and the first half of the year, the contest between the half-year test of car companies has come to an end. Several happy couples, although the domestic auto market maintained a 4% increase, but the slight negative growth trend is not optimistic. The reporter took stock of the sales data of the car companies in the first half of the year and found that the growth rate of many car companies in the first half of the year has been relatively slow.

From the completion rate, only 5 companies in the first half of the year were relatively qualified, reaching more than 45%, of which SAIC (32.400, 0.60, 1.89%) (600104.SH) completed the annual sales target of 47.9%, Geely Automobile (00175. HK) completed 48.5% of the annual sales target; the remaining three are joint ventures, Dongfeng Nissan completed 45.4% of its annual sales target, FAW Toyota completed 48.4% of its annual sales target, and GAC Toyota completed 51.8% of its annual sales target.

From the perspective of growth, Geely Automobile, SAIC and GAC Toyota are in a state of rapid growth. Dongfeng Nissan and SAIC Volkswagen are in a relatively fast growth state, and the growth rate of other auto companies has shown a slowdown to a certain extent. Of particular note is Changan Automobile (7.930, 0.01, 0.13%) (000625.SZ) and Great Wall Motor (9.180, 0.00, 0.00%) (601633.SH; 02333.HK) and other car companies among the three independent automakers. It showed a negative growth, Changan Automobile increased by -10.8% compared with the same period of last year, and Great Wall Motor increased by -0.2% compared with the same period of last year.

In response, Great Wall Motor’s Secretary-General responded that “1, 2, and 3 quarters are the off-season of the auto industry. The company will make targeted policies to stabilize sales on the basis of single-machine management, and launch new models before the peak season. In order to promote sales increase.” Changan Automobile mentioned in the semi-annual report that “in the report period, although the profitability of the company’s independent passenger vehicles has improved, the investment income from the company’s past has declined, and the investment of the joint ventures. The income dropped significantly." However, the reporter contacted the relevant person in charge of Changan Automobile to interview the sales situation in the first half of the year and has not received the reply from the other party.

For the car market that increased slightly in the first half of the year, Cui Dongshu believes that the main reason can be attributed to “SUV stall”. He admits that "the domestic auto market is too dependent on SUV models for joint venture brands or independent brands, but as the SUV dividends gradually move toward a recession, the growth rate returns to the normal growth stage, which will lead to a certain sales volume in the domestic auto market. To a certain extent, there will be a slowdown or even a fall in growth in a certain period. However, in the future, new energy vehicles will become a new growth driver for the Chinese auto market."

For the development of the automotive market in the second half of the year, Cui Dongshu still maintained a more optimistic attitude: "Although the 4% growth rate in the whole year of 2018 is difficult to achieve, but with the policy of encouraging domestic demand continue to advance, the auto market will still have the opportunity to achieve super A steady growth under high base."



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