According to the survey data of 24 chemical companies in the United States published by the US Chemical Engineering and News magazine, the sales revenue of these companies reached US$126.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2005, an increase of 12.5% ​​over the same period of the previous year, and a profit of 10.3 billion US dollars. 48%, but in the fourth quarter of last year, due to the direct increase in the cost of hurricanes and raw materials, performance has dropped. Last year was also the year that American chemical manufacturers tried hard to raise prices. Basic chemical manufacturers used this to make up for the rapid increase in the cost of oil, natural gas, and electricity. In 2006, the situation facing the US chemical industry was basically similar to the beginning of 2005. Last year, the US product price index for all sectors of the chemical industry (excluding the price index for non-edible oils, which fell by 4.4%) showed an increase. The price index for plastic resin products rose by 18.9%; the price index for basic chemicals increased by 13.9%, including organic chemicals. The price index rose by 14.8%, the inorganic chemical price index rose by 11.2%, the paint price index rose by 6.7%, agrochemicals increased by 6.4%, pharmaceuticals increased by 4.7%, and other chemicals increased by 4.9%.
In 2006, the American chemical industry will continue to face high raw material and energy costs. At the same time, international industrial competition will become increasingly fierce, and chemical trade deficits will continue to grow. These are not only important factors for the American chemical industry but also for the global industry. Despite this, analysts remain optimistic about the prospects of the US chemical industry this year.
The most important factor in predicting the overall situation of the chemical industry is the economic growth rate. According to the US economic forecast report issued by the American Business Economic Association (NABE) in November last year, the United States’ economic growth rate will reach 3.3% this year, a slight decrease from last year's 3.6%. Another important indicator is the growth rate of personal consumption expenditure, which is expected to be 2.9% this year, which is 0.6% lower than last year.
Fitch Ratings, a well-known global credit rating company, points out that the U.S. commodity chemicals producers will reach the peak of profits in this year's business cycle. The duration of profit peaks depends on factors such as economic growth and raw material costs. In addition, supply and demand in the chemical market in the United States will remain tight in the first half of the year due to the planned increase in maintenance and inspection equipment and low level of inventory. In this case, the manufacturer should be able to successfully increase the selling price of the product in order to resolve the pressure of profit brought about by the high cost of raw materials. Fitch believes that the operating rate of ethylene and polyethylene plants in the United States will remain above 95% in the first half of this year. A report released by Merrill Lynch last month pointed out that in the field of basic chemicals, ethylene has become a wind vane in a certain sense. In 2006, ethylene prices and gross profit will fall from the current high level, but the annual ethylene/polyethylene gross profit It will still be higher than the 2005 level.
Merrill Lynch pointed out that this year's ethylene production in the United States will still be limited, especially in the first half of this year. The reason is that the loss of ethylene production caused by the planned and unplanned shutdown of the ethylene plant this year will account for 7% of the total production capacity, just as compared to last year. The hurricane caused a 10% drop in ethylene production by 3 percentage points. In addition, the US market’s demand for ethylene will rebound by 7% this year after falling by 5% last year, aggravating the tight supply and demand situation of ethylene.
ACC pointed out that as the profits of chemical products grow, new equipment and equipment investment will increase steadily. ACC statistics show that last year, US chemical industry investment increased by 11% to 24.1 billion U.S. dollars, and it is expected to increase by 10% this year to 26.5 billion U.S. dollars, and in 2007 it will further increase by 6% to 28 billion U.S. dollars.
In 2006, the American chemical industry will continue to face high raw material and energy costs. At the same time, international industrial competition will become increasingly fierce, and chemical trade deficits will continue to grow. These are not only important factors for the American chemical industry but also for the global industry. Despite this, analysts remain optimistic about the prospects of the US chemical industry this year.
The most important factor in predicting the overall situation of the chemical industry is the economic growth rate. According to the US economic forecast report issued by the American Business Economic Association (NABE) in November last year, the United States’ economic growth rate will reach 3.3% this year, a slight decrease from last year's 3.6%. Another important indicator is the growth rate of personal consumption expenditure, which is expected to be 2.9% this year, which is 0.6% lower than last year.
Fitch Ratings, a well-known global credit rating company, points out that the U.S. commodity chemicals producers will reach the peak of profits in this year's business cycle. The duration of profit peaks depends on factors such as economic growth and raw material costs. In addition, supply and demand in the chemical market in the United States will remain tight in the first half of the year due to the planned increase in maintenance and inspection equipment and low level of inventory. In this case, the manufacturer should be able to successfully increase the selling price of the product in order to resolve the pressure of profit brought about by the high cost of raw materials. Fitch believes that the operating rate of ethylene and polyethylene plants in the United States will remain above 95% in the first half of this year. A report released by Merrill Lynch last month pointed out that in the field of basic chemicals, ethylene has become a wind vane in a certain sense. In 2006, ethylene prices and gross profit will fall from the current high level, but the annual ethylene/polyethylene gross profit It will still be higher than the 2005 level.
Merrill Lynch pointed out that this year's ethylene production in the United States will still be limited, especially in the first half of this year. The reason is that the loss of ethylene production caused by the planned and unplanned shutdown of the ethylene plant this year will account for 7% of the total production capacity, just as compared to last year. The hurricane caused a 10% drop in ethylene production by 3 percentage points. In addition, the US market’s demand for ethylene will rebound by 7% this year after falling by 5% last year, aggravating the tight supply and demand situation of ethylene.
ACC pointed out that as the profits of chemical products grow, new equipment and equipment investment will increase steadily. ACC statistics show that last year, US chemical industry investment increased by 11% to 24.1 billion U.S. dollars, and it is expected to increase by 10% this year to 26.5 billion U.S. dollars, and in 2007 it will further increase by 6% to 28 billion U.S. dollars.
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