For the trend of the instrumentation industry in the second half of 2010, the China Instrument Industry Association special advisor Yan Jiacheng stated that based on the cumulative growth in the two months of the second quarter and the single-month production and sales value has entered a historically high area, and the country's efforts to strengthen economic restructuring and other effects In the second half of the year, the declining trend of the year-on-year growth in the production and sales of the industry can be determined. However, due to the increase in factors that affect the degree of decline and the change in the chain ratio, the uncertainty in the trend will increase, but there is little chance of sharp and sharp decline.
This kind of uncertainty first includes the impact of economic restructuring on instrumentation demand. For example, the suppression of “double high†and overcapacity industries and excessively high house prices have led to industrial automation control devices, field instruments, supply instruments, and surveying and mapping. The traditional demand for instruments, such as instruments, has declined, and the degree of decline is still difficult to determine.
Second, it includes the industry's adaptability to economic restructuring. China's industrial sector is facing an upsurge of corporate technological transformation driven by the implementation of energy-saving emission reductions and enhancement of independent innovation capabilities. The resulting large demand for measurement and control equipment will continue in the second half of the year. At the same time, the demand for monitoring and control equipment in emerging industries such as new energy has been or is being formed, but most of this type of equipment is still dependent on imports. Although some companies have made progress and breakthroughs, their capabilities and adaptability are yet to be tested.
In addition, it also includes the status of the international market and exchange reform efforts. In addition to affecting imports and exports, some foreign-funded enterprises also use foreign exchange reform to further reduce price competition. While maintaining the advantage of the high-end market, they also try to expand the market share in the mid-range and even low-end markets.
Annual increase of around 15%
Affected by the previous year's base number and seasonal factors, the year-on-year increase in sales and sales and the single-month value will both drop significantly. The key to the chain's trend depends on the operating conditions in September.
Jia Jiacheng said that according to historical statistical analysis, if September's data is higher than the high point of the middle of the year, then the monthly growth rate in the fourth quarter could be expected to reach a high growth rate of more than 25% for the whole year; if the September data is close to the mid-year high Point, then in the fourth quarter, the monthly chain will fluctuate upwards, and the annual increase will be above 15% or 20%. If the September data is much smaller than the mid-year high, then there will be a weaker chain growth in the fourth quarter, and the annual production sales will be lower than the year-end. The mid-high point of the weak state, the annual increase will also be reduced to below 13%, and the impact of its situation will also be extended to the first half of 2011.
Since the high operating data in the first half of the year has laid a good foundation for the whole year, according to the current operating conditions of the majority of key enterprises, although the demand is slowing, but the rate of decline is not large, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in production and sales and profits will gradually decline, but all year round. The increase in production and sales will be around 15%, and the profit growth will be higher than 15%.
The increase in profits is still higher than the increase in sales
Yan Jiacheng believes that “although the year-on-year growth of the industry’s profits in the second half will continue to fall due to the base number, the industry’s profit growth will remain in good condition, and the average monthly profit value will continue to rise. The annual profit growth will still be higher than With an increase in production and sales, the main revenue profit rate will exceed 7.5%."
First of all, although the demand will be levelled off in the second half of the year, the effectiveness of technological progress, economies of scale, and enhanced management will continue. For example, the output value of new products in 2008 and 2009 increased by 11.5% and 7.5% respectively. In the first half of 2010, the increase has increased to 43.46%, and the proportion of new products has reached 16.04%; from January to May 2010, the industry The increase in production and sales reached 30%, but the increase in product inventory was only 7.31%. The balance of liquidity, accounts receivable, liabilities, management fees, and financial expenses were all lower than the increase in sales. In the second half of the year, the above data will turn flat, but it will not rise quickly and lead to a substantial drop in profits.
Second, foreign-funded enterprises have already bottomed out. "Three-funded" enterprises are large profit holders in the instrumentation industry. Although their profits in 2008 increased by -2.68% year-on-year, the first negative profit growth since the reform and opening up occurred, and the increase in 2009 was only 1.3%. It was flat, but in the first half of 2010, its growth rate has risen sharply and exceeded 100%.
In addition, there is little pressure to increase costs. There was a rise in raw materials and components at the beginning of the year, but it has slowed down in the middle of the year, and it is expected that there will be little chance for another rise in the second half.