With the deadline for the release of the third-quarter earnings report, domestic listed automakers have successively produced transcripts. Seven companies grew year-on-year and seven fell year-on-year, and the trend of independent brand differentiation became more apparent.
However, although the number of companies that appear to be growing and falling is flat, the performance of listed companies this year is generally lower than expected.
In the case of poor record in the sedan market, SUVs have become the hope of their own brands to turn over. However, even in this market, there is not much time left for independent brands.
Autonomous car companies were cold as of October 31, among the 14 mainstream car companies in the statistics, Ankai Bus (000868.SZ), Jiangling Motors (000550.SZ), and SAIC Group (600104.SH) Dongfeng Motor (600006. SH), Yutong Bus (600066.SH), Zhongtong Bus (000957.SZ) and Changan Automobile (000625.SZ) showed year-on-year growth; and Great Wall Motor (601633.SH), Haima Automobile (000572.SZ), BYD ( 002594.SZ), Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH), FAW Car (000800.SZ), FAW Xiali (000927.SZ) and Jinbei Automobile (600609.SH) decreased year-on-year.
Among the above-mentioned announced companies, there are two notable aspects. One is the Ankai bus. From the year-on-year growth rate, the performance of Ankai Bus in the first three quarters of this year has increased by nearly 50%, but in fact, it belongs to The net profit of non-operating profit and loss of listed company shareholders is still negative, amounting to -24 million, and the government subsidy included in the current profit and loss is as high as 27 million. This also means that the so-called performance growth is actually only a narrowing of losses. On the other hand, it is worth noting that there are losses of several independent brands including Great Wall, Haima, BYD and Jianghuai Automobile. The data shows that Great Wall Motor achieved a profit of 1.631 billion yuan in the third quarter, down 21.7% year-on-year. The profit attributable to the company was 5.586 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. The performance report released by Haima Automobile shows that in the third quarter of this year, the net profit of Haima Automobile decreased by about 58% year-on-year to only 25.767 million yuan, and the net profit of the first three quarters decreased by 3% to only 144 million yuan. In the first three quarters of BYD Auto's net profit was 389 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the company suffered a loss of 390 million yuan in the first three quarters. In terms of Jianghuai, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the third quarter was -0.39 billion yuan. In the first three quarters, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million yuan, down 43.63% year-on-year. This is the first time that Jianghuai Automobile has suffered a single quarter loss in the past five years.
According to last year's performance report, the above-mentioned performances including Great Wall, Jianghuai and Haima showed positive growth year-on-year. Data show that in the first three quarters of 2013, Jianghuai Automobile's net profit reached 740 million yuan, an increase of 81.2% over the same period of the previous year. The net profit of Haima Motor in the first three quarters also reached 199 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 223.34%. The net profit of the first three quarters of Great Wall 2013 reached 8.224 billion yuan, an increase of 44.5%.
In addition, FAW Car achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 246 million yuan in the first three quarters of this year, down 68.73% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of FAW Xiali, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -6.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 599.87%. After the recurring profit and loss, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 142.6% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the parent company after the non-recurring gains and losses of Jinbei Automobile decreased by 455.35% year-on-year to -36.64 million yuan.
The direct cause of the decline in the SUV's hopes of causing the decline in the performance of the car companies is the decline in the sales volume of the car companies. According to the data of the Association, in the first nine months of this year, the sales volume of BYD Auto was only 298,000, down 20% year-on-year; In the first nine months, FAW Haima's sales volume decreased by 27.4% to less than 60,000 units; Jianghuai Automobile's sales volume decreased by 17.7% to 123,600 units; and the sales performance of Changcheng Motors, which has been strong in sales, decreased by 8.8% in the first nine months to only 417,000. Car.
It is an indisputable fact that the above-mentioned decline in sales of autonomous passenger car companies is reflected in the market segment, which is the loss of the car market. In September this year, sales of self-owned brands in the sedan market continued to decline year-on-year, from 274,400 units in the same period last year to 228,900 units, down 16.6% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the number of self-owned cars dropped by 14.7% year-on-year to 1.957 million units from last year's 2.294 million units, and the market share dropped by 5 percentage points to 21.7%. In the view of brokers and analysts in the automotive industry, it is extremely difficult for independent brands to regain lost ground. In a sense, it has become almost an "unfinishable task." As a result, independent listed companies have bet on performance growth in new energy vehicles and SUVs. However, from the current point of view, as the new energy vehicle market is still small, plus the investment of new vehicles in the previous period, relying on new It is also unrealistic for energy vehicles to achieve a reversal of performance in the short term. The most obvious evidence is BYD Auto. According to statistics, in the first nine months of this year, the sales volume of BYD's new energy vehicles reached 9,473, and the sales of pure electric E6 reached 2004. At the same time, in the first half of this year, BYD’s revenue on new energy vehicles has reached 2.7 billion yuan, but some auto analysts pointed out that although BYD’s new energy vehicle business grew rapidly in the first three quarters, its net profit decreased year-on-year, indicating that The development of the company's new energy vehicles has not yet been translated into profitability.
In view of this, more analysts pin their hopes of reversing the performance of their own listed companies on the sales of SUVs. In the context of the current slowdown in the auto market to single digits, the SUV market remained in the first nine months. More than 30% of the growth rate, in addition, compared to cars, SUV not only has a higher profit margin for bicycles, but also has a premium in price, so the contribution to the profit of the car companies is more obvious. Looking at the research report of the securities companies on the car companies, most brokers have full hopes for Jianghuai's small SUV Ruifeng S3 and the two SUVs that the Great Wall will soon be listed.
It’s not the case. However, from the current point of view, relying solely on SUVs to “turn overâ€, there is not much time for independent brands. Prior to this, Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Chery") assistant general manager and marketing company general manager Huang Huaqiong said in an interview with the "First Financial Daily" reporter that the dividend of the independent brand in the SUV market was mainly due to “Time differenceâ€, in this market, joint ventures and foreign-owned car companies have not yet fully entered, and the market competition is not as full as the car market. Cui Dongshu, deputy secretary-general of the National Association of the United States, also believes that with the intensive deployment of joint venture brands, the advantages of independent brands in the field of SUV will gradually be lost.
Such predictions are gradually becoming a reality. According to the data compiled by Gasgoo.com, in 2009, the SUV market was basically autonomous, Japanese and Korean, accounting for 45%, 40% and 12.7 respectively in the overall market. %. At that time, the US and German SUVs did not enter the market in a comprehensive manner. In 2012, with the launch of Shanghai Volkswagen Tiguan, the new army of the SUV market expanded rapidly, and the market share of each faction also showed a significant change. It shows that in 2013, the sales volume of US SUVs reached 254,700 units, and its share in the SUV market soared to 8.5%, up 7 percentage points year-on-year; while the Japanese share fell to 21.3%. The German SUV only took a view of an SUV, which accounted for 6.66% of the market share. Under the promotion of several generations of Korean Tongji strategy, the market share of the Korean SUV in 2013 reached 13.9%. At this time, the series of SUVs including Beijing Hyundai ix25 and Chevrolet Chuangku and Honda have not yet entered the scale. As the leading car manufacturer in Shanghai, Shanghai GM, before this, although it has launched two small SUVs, it has been in a vacant state in the mainstream mid-level SUV field. Just last month, Buick Angwei's listing means that Shanghai GM will officially make a force to divide the market cake. From the point of view of the benchmark model, Angkewei has not yet listed, it has already released the wind, aiming at the Shanghai Volkswagen Tiguan, which is very important in the market. From the price it has already released and the models launched, Encore will follow the trend. The strategy of eating, on the one hand, uses the 2.0T model and Tiguan to compete face-to-face, and the 1.5T model that will be launched will be further pushed down, putting pressure on Japanese and Korean. The German system has been eating and drinking, and the Japanese company that is preparing to recover through the SUV has not been idle. Before this, Guangben launched its first SUV model, Binzhi, and aimed at the compact SUV market. In this regard, there is a view that the compact SUV market has always been the world of independent brands, and whether the entry of the US, Korean and Japanese companies will trigger a joint venture like the sedan market, and eventually squeeze the market for the independent SUV. . The answer is obvious. With the entry of the above-mentioned series of models, the era of “100 schools of contention†in the domestic SUV market has officially arrived.
Therefore, in the face of the joint venture, the independent SUV also tried to break the price and break the price ceiling. Before that, GAC Chuanqi launched the GS5 speed blog with a price range of 163,800 to 231,800 yuan, although it seems to the industry The price has already reached a new high, but Wu Song, the general manager of Guangzhou Automobile Passenger Vehicle, has no rumors that Chuanqi GS5 Speed ​​Bo is to break the ceiling of independent prices and mark the Japanese and Korean. Even so, due to the weakness of the brand's influence and premium on the brand, the GS5 Speed ​​Bo is still lower in price than the SUV with the same configuration. In fact, in a sense, this also reflects the difficult state and the paradox that the self-owned brands face when they go up. However, in Huang Huaqiong's view, independent brands must finally achieve breakthroughs. This high-quality and low-price state will inevitably exist. Only by first testing the strategy of high quality and low price will eventually lead to high quality and high price. And auto analyst Zhang Zhiyong also believes that independent brands must go to the high end, and ultimately must rely on cost-effective advantages to win. However, even if independent brands try to make a bigger breakthrough in the SUV market in this way, and thus have a place in the entire market, there is not much time left for them. Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the market share of self-owned brand SUVs fell by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to 40.3%. In the first eight months of this year, it only increased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The market for independent SUVs is also being rushed.
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