Last Friday, at the "2017 Commodity Futures Market Outlook" conference hosted by Hongye Futures in Nanjing, Zhou Feng, president of the Minmetals Economic Research Institute, said that in 2016, the total production of major copper mining companies in the world began to decrease. Most companies have withdrawn from a state of substantial growth. The growth rate of global copper mining enterprises is gradually slowing down, and the copper market is moving toward rebalancing.
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From the perspective of changes in smelting and processing fees, at the end of 2016, domestic smelting and processing costs reached US$90/ton, while in the middle of this month, the cost was at least US$80/ton. “This means that the copper mine surplus has basically passed,†Zhou Feng said. Moreover, the mining company’s share price has risen sharply. For example, Vale’s share price has risen four times last year.
“Since the Spring Festival, copper prices have been supported, which is also related to the strike of the world’s largest copper mine, the Escondida copper mine in Chile and the Freeport of Indonesia.†He added that the current supply of copper has been affected, and there are still other copper mines in the second half of the year. There will still be talks about labor negotiations, and there are still concerns about strikes.
On the demand side, Zhou Feng said that the increase in demand in 2016 was unexpected. In 2015, global copper consumption increased by only 1% year-on-year. In 2016, the forecasted consumption increased by less than 1.5%, but the actual growth reached 2.2%. China's current copper consumption accounts for more than 40% of the world, so changes in China's consumption are crucial. According to statistics from Liyi Technology Consulting (Beijing) Co., Ltd., China's refined copper consumption surged 5.6% in 2016 to 10.65 million tons, compared with 2.5% at the beginning of the year. China's copper consumption is much higher than expected, mainly due to strong infrastructure, real estate investment, and home appliance industry to complete destocking ahead of schedule.
In terms of sub-indicators, 50% of China's copper consumption is used in the power industry for cables and power grids. “In addition to the urban power grid, the new rural network transformation also consumes a lot of copper. The growth rate last year and the previous year was double-digit. This proves that copper consumption in China is actually good.†Zhou Feng said that it is expected that the future grid investment will continue to remain. High position.
It is understood that the latest 2016 Social Responsibility Report released by State Grid mentioned that the planned investment in 2017 is 465.7 billion yuan, and the actual completion is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan. In addition, the investment in urban and rural distribution networks during the 13th Five-Year Plan period shall not be less than 2 trillion yuan, of which the rural power grid transformation shall not be less than 700 billion yuan, and the accumulated investment during the 13th Five-Year Plan period shall not be less than 1.7 trillion yuan.
It is worth noting that the charging station has also become a new consumption point for copper in recent years. According to the data, as of the end of 2016, the State Grid has built 5,526 electric vehicle charging and replacing stations, and accumulated 107,000 charging piles, including 44,000 in enterprises and 63,000 social operators. In addition, 6 vertical and 6 horizontal and double rings The express express network has reached 14,000 kilometers, covering 95 cities.
In addition, the output of the “large copper households†household appliance industry is generally stable. The data showed that the output of household refrigerators and household washing machines rebounded sharply in the second half of 2016, with year-on-year growth of 4.6% and 8.24% in 2016, respectively. Zhou Feng expects that the copper consumption of the home appliance industry in 2017 will remain optimistic. The use of copper in new energy vehicles has also increased compared with traditional vehicles. Zhou Feng said that in recent years, the output and sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles are very high. Although this year has declined to some extent, the number is still considerable.
Overall, Zhou Feng believes that in the next five years, as China's economic growth slows, the role of copper consumption in global consumption will inevitably weaken. It is not easy for the consumption of developed countries to maintain their decline. Therefore, during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, the growth rate of global copper consumption is likely to slow down significantly. It is estimated that the annual compound growth rate of global refined copper consumption in 2017-2020 will be reduced from 3.1% in the past five years to 1.8%.
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