On July 26, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers officially released the analysis and forecast of the automobile industry in the second half of the year. The China Automobile Association predicts that if the macro economy is improving, and related policies such as energy conservation and new energy vehicle subsidies are promoted in an orderly manner, China's automobile sales in 2012 will be about 20 million, an increase of 8%.
According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, passenger car sales will reach 16.09 million vehicles, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year. Among them, the car will return to a stable growth track, and it is expected to reach 11.18 million vehicles in the whole year, an increase of 10.5%. The SUV predicted sales of 2.07 million units, up 30% year-on-year; MPV sales were 560,000 units, up 13% year-on-year; cross-type passenger cars were 2.28 million units, a slight increase of 1%.
In terms of commercial vehicles, the China Automobile Association predicts that the annual sales of commercial vehicles will be 3.91 million units, down 3% year-on-year. Among them, passenger cars continued to maintain a relatively high growth rate, with an estimated sales of 550,000 vehicles for the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 14%; trucks showed a negative growth trend.
In terms of import and export, the China Automobile Association predicts that the annual import will reach 1.2 million units, an increase of 15% year-on-year; the export will be 1.05 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and the import and export balance will be 150,000 units. If we consider the import and export factors, China's domestic car sales this year will be around 2015 million.
Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, told reporters that the China Automobile Association’s forecast fully considers many factors affecting the automobile market, including the macroeconomic environment, the improvement of rural automobile consumption capacity, and the encouragement of local governments for automobile consumption. Restrict policies, as well as energy, transportation, and environmental impacts. "If the macro economy only maintains its current status, as long as there is no large-scale policy to restrict automobile consumption, the growth rate of automobile sales this year will reach 5%." Shi Jianhua said.
According to the data, in 2011, China’s automobile sales reached 18.51 million units, an increase of 2.5% compared with 2010, and entered a stage of steady growth. In the first half of this year, the production and sales of automobiles reached 9.53 million and 9.6 million respectively, up 4% and 3% respectively, which is lower than the forecast of the China Automobile Association for the whole year. This means that the China Automobile Association believes that the situation of the automotive industry will improve in the second half of the year.
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