In May, the domestic market for hydrochloric acid closed with a light atmosphere. The downstream consumer demand remained weak and prices remained low. The reporter learned from the major chlor-alkali chemical companies in the country that the current pattern of domestic oversupply of the hydrochloric acid market has not changed. It will take time before the demand for downstream acid-sufficiency companies pulls down. The price of liquid chlorine in the upstream is sluggish, and the trend of hydrochloric acid prices is not optimistic. There is no hope of rebounding, or will remain low.
According to reports, from January to April of this year, the hydrochloric acid market has been shrouded in an atmosphere of depression and gloomy. Downstream demand has been weak and prices have been falling. In particular, from February to March, with the increase in the operating rate of chlor-alkali manufacturers, the supply of hydrochloric acid has increased substantially, and the contradiction of supply exceeding demand in the market has become more prominent. In early May, the mainstream transaction price of synthetic acid in the market has been lowered to 10 to 50 yuan (t price, the same below), and some high-end acid sources are priced at 200 to 300 yuan, but the actual transaction volume is very limited. There are many sources of retail prices for byproducts of hydrochloric acid, and some manufacturers use acid to replace synthetic acids with by-product hydrochloric acid when the process conditions permit, making synthetic acid prices prohibitive.
Constrained by the following factors, the market price of hydrochloric acid will hardly have upward performance in the short term, and it will take a long time to reverse the decline.
With the continuous increase of production, the phenomenon of enterprise expansion is intensified and the oversupply situation will continue. At this stage, all major chlor-alkali enterprises in the country are experiencing the phenomenon of hydrochlorination, and the sales pressure is extremely high. In particular, the output of synthetic acid is close to the bottom line allowed by the process, and the probability of output compression is very small. Hydrochloric acid is a liquid product and it is inconvenient to store it. Its storage and transportation costs are high and its fluidity is poor. Some chlor-alkali enterprises in Inner Mongolia may even experience free shipping. In recent years, the production of hydrochloric acid in China has been continuously improved. The latest statistical data show that in 2011, cumulative hydrochloric acid production in China reached 8.41 million tons, 2.11% more than in 2010. Cumulative production from January to March this year was 2,074,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. At the same time, a large number of newly-built chlor-alkali enterprises are still put into operation in the near future. Old companies are still expanding their capacity, and the market will continue to be in a situation of imbalance between supply and demand.
The liquid chlorine market in the upper reaches of the market is weak, and it is difficult for the hydrochloric acid market to change significantly in the short term. It is understood that due to the long-term underemployment of chlorine-consuming enterprises of liquid chlorine, it is difficult to support the price of liquid chlorine. After the “May 1stâ€, the domestic liquid chlorine market has a thicker wait-and-see atmosphere. Although Jiangsu, Shandong, Inner Mongolia and other places have reduced the start-up load and expect the liquid chlorine price to stop falling, the actual effect is not obvious. At present, the low price of liquid chlorine in Jiangsu is down to 50 to 150 yuan, and the mainstream price in Sichuan is 300 to 500 yuan. The company's liquid chlorine production even suffered losses. Hydrochloric acid was used as a balanced product for chlor-alkali enterprises. The manufacturers were forced to “press the chlorine and keep the acidâ€, prompting the company to further increase the amount of hydrochloric acid put on the market, and the price continued to decline. In particular, in the East China region, the liquid chlorine market is currently in a situation where there is no market for prices, which has negatively affected the market for hydrochloric acid.
Downstream industry demand is hard to pick up in the short term, and the market for hydrochloric acid is weak. Hydrochloric acid is an important inorganic chemical raw material, mainly used in pharmaceutical, petrochemical, rare earth, metallurgy, water purification agent and other industries. Due to the strong regional characteristics of the hydrochloric acid market, the influence of the neighboring regional market is relatively small. The industry generally has no optimistic expectations for the hydrochloric acid market, and the downstream market for hydrochloric acid will be in a weak state in the short term.
Specifically, at present, the start-up load of rare earth enterprises in the downstream of the hydrochloric acid market in the Northwest China region has been basically stable. It is difficult to increase the shipment of hydrochloric acid enterprises in the later period, and the pressure of the by-product hydrochloric acid inventory is relatively large, the price is relatively low, and the downstream rare earth, chemical industry, and power plants are numerous. Substitution of hydrochloric acid as a by-product for synthetic acid, constraining the rise in the price of synthetic acid; the northeastern hydrochloric acid market mainly supplies downstream medicine and steel, etc. The steel industry is affected by the real estate downturn, resulting in restrictions on the hydrochloric acid market, and the market outlook is not optimistic; downstream areas in East China and South China Slow recovery of water purification agent, chemical fiber, etc., leading to sluggish demand for hydrochloric acid, the market outlook will be in the state of no volume. Therefore, the pattern of excess supply of hydrochloric acid in the short term is difficult to change.
Although the hydrochloric acid market will maintain its low position in the short term, industry experts also suggested that, given the cyclical changes in chemical products, including hydrochloric acid, and the steady growth of the domestic economy, the demand in the downstream market will tend to be active. At the end of the quarter or the end of the third quarter, the hydrochloric acid market may move out of the current downturn and enter the upstream channel.
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