On March 1, 2013, the Royal Dutch Shell Group issued a new energy outlook report, proposing that by 2060, the global population will reach 9.5 billion, and the rapid development of emerging countries will lift countless people out of poverty. Global energy demand will double in the next 50 years.
In the new energy outlook, Shell believes that in the two new scenarios that may occur in the 21st century, natural gas or solar energy is expected to become the world’s most important source of energy in the future.
Shell named the two scenarios as "mountain" and "ocean" respectively. The first scenario, "mountain," shows that by 2030, cleaner natural gas will become the world's most important energy source, accompanied by reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. The initial move. Another scenario, “Oceanâ€, shows that by 2070, solar energy will become the most important resource, but the response to climate change is slow.
According to reports, the “high mountains†scenario assumes a steady development of the global economy, and policy guidelines play an important role in building a global energy system and environmental protection. Combustion of cleaner natural gas will become the backbone of the global energy system, replacing coal as a fuel for power generation in many regions, and it will begin to be widely used in transportation. At present, in the commercial vehicle sector, natural gas products have shown a trend of rapid development. LNG trucks have become a key product for many commercial vehicle manufacturers to develop and market.
In the “mountain†scenario, by about 2035, profound changes in the transportation industry have brought the global demand for oil to a peak. By the end of the century, most cars and trucks on the road will be powered by electricity and hydrogen. Technologies that capture CO2 emissions from power plants, refineries, and other industrial facilities will be widely used, which will allow the energy industry's CO2 emissions to approach zero in 2060. Another factor is the growth of nuclear power in the total global electricity generation. By 2060, the market share of nuclear power will increase by about 25%. With the changes in the global energy system, greenhouse gas emissions will begin to decline after 2030. However, the total greenhouse gas emissions are still higher than the emission targets that can control global warming to within 2 degrees Celsius.
In the world outlined by the "ocean" scenario, prosperity is prosperous but the energy prospects are mainly determined by the market and civil society, and not by government policies. The resistance from the public and the slow implementation of related policies and technologies will limit the development of nuclear energy and the development of natural gas outside of North America. At least until the middle of this century, coal is still widely used for power generation.
The "Ocean" scenario assumes that there is no strong support from the decision makers and that CO2 capture and storage technology will develop slowly. By the middle of the century, capture and storage accounted for only 10% of global carbon dioxide emissions. By 2075, this proportion may reach 25%. Therefore, the "ocean" scenario achieves zero emissions from power generation 30 years after the "mountain" scenario.
In the "ocean" scenario, high energy prices will promote the development of difficult-to-recover oil resources and at the same time stimulate the production of biofuels. In the 1920s and 1930s, oil demand will continue to increase until it stabilizes in 2040. By the middle of this century, 70% of land-based travelers will still use liquid fuels. In addition, the high price of fuel will also increase energy efficiency and stimulate the development and utilization of solar energy. By 2070, solar photovoltaic panels will become the world's leading source of energy. The public's opposition to the installation of large-scale wind turbines will lead to slow development of wind energy. Due to the increased demand for coal and oil, the lack of support for carbon dioxide capture and storage, and the slow development of natural gas outside of North America, greenhouse gas emissions from the “ocean†scenario will be 25% higher than the “alpine†scenario.
Shell believes that both scenarios believe that by the year 2100, the world will basically achieve zero carbon dioxide emissions. One of the conditions for achieving this goal is to increase the use of emission reduction technologies, stop the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, such as burning biomass to generate electricity, and store the discharged carbon dioxide underground. Although the “Ocean†scenario foreshadowed the popularity of solar energy, this scenario shows that in the next century, fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions are higher in “ocean†scenarios than in “alpine†scenarios. Therefore, the "ocean" scenario may have more impact on the global climate.
Shell said that this scenario analysis aims to focus on the economic, political, and energy trends that are now between 2100. Government policy may be a key factor in building the future.
“These scenarios show that in the next few years, the choices of government, companies and individuals will have a significant impact on the future.†CEO of Shell Group Fusai said that companies and governments must seek new ways of cooperation and introduce relevant policies to promote Develop and use clean energy and improve energy efficiency.
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