The Central Office and the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Comprehensively Promoting the Reform of the Official Car System" and the "Reform Plan for the Official Car System of the Central and State Organs", indicating that the reform of the bus in China has entered a substantive start-up phase. So, what will the bus reform bring to the auto industry?
First, it may not be good for independent brands, and has limited impact on joint venture brands. Since the two sessions last year, the news of official car reform has been released frequently. The initial statement is that the procurement of official vehicles tends to be independent brands. So their respective main brands are ecstatic, and they want to do a great job. However, the introduction of the policy means that the demand for most of the official vehicles will be canceled, and the independent brands originally thought that they could seize the big cake in the official car market. But now, with the full launch of the bus reform, it is clear that the big business cake that the independent brands are expecting will be greatly reduced. From a market perspective, it is not good news for independent brands.
For joint venture brands, in recent years, the procurement of official vehicles has increasingly favored independent brands. From the perspective of psychological preparation and actual market operation, joint venture brands have already responded to the official vehicle market. Therefore, the bus reform is a joint venture. The impact of the brand is limited in substance.
Second, after the bus reform, individuals and families who can no longer use buses will have the possibility to buy private cars, and some families may not only buy a private car, which will greatly stimulate the increase in domestic car sales. In addition, not all public servants were equipped with official vehicles (mainly those with real powers), but now they are subsidized by everyone, so it is estimated that most people will buy their own cars. Promote the consumption of private cars.
Third, after the official launch of the bus reform, the used car market will be stimulated to a certain extent. Cancelled general official vehicles will be publicly disposed of through public auctions in the future. It is foreseeable that some buses will flow into the used car market. The official vehicles are mostly medium and high-end models. These vehicles will be popular in the used car market, which will drive the consumption of the entire automobile industry chain including used cars and repairing industries. In addition, the car rental market will also be developed. Most of the units that carry out the car reform need to use the car, and will consider getting services from the car rental company, thus stimulating the development of the domestic car rental industry. The industry expects that under the stimulation of bus reform, China's automobile short-term rental market will maintain rapid growth in the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate of 27%. The short-term rental market is expected to grow from 6 billion yuan in 2013 to 2018. 18 billion yuan in the year.
Fourth, for other impacts of the bus reform, such as the "Opinions" encourages official travel to use public transport services, clearly indicating that all localities should take effective measures to improve the urban public transport service system, and explore the development of market-oriented traffic customized services suitable for official travel. . It is conceivable that the improvement of public transportation service systems such as taxis and subways will be more valued, and efficient new social transportation modes will also be encouraged. In addition, although the general official vehicles have been cancelled, some vehicles will be reserved for special official travel. The "Opinions" stipulate that this part of the vehicle will be preferred to use new energy vehicles; although the number of emergency official vehicles is small, but for new energy vehicles The demonstration role should not be underestimated.
However, some insiders expressed concern that the cancellation of general official vehicles will have a limited effect on promoting new car sales in the short term, and it will be a negative in the long run. Although the official car has public service subsidies after the reform of the official car, but the economic conditions are good, there have been private cars long ago; even if the economic conditions are poor, even if there are subsidies, but because of the low subsidy standards, it is not enough to encourage them to buy private cars. Therefore, in the short term, the official car reform has a limited effect on promoting new car sales. In the long run, the official car has always been a big market. The annual purchase is not a small amount. Nowadays, the hard-boiled meat will be cut down, causing the official car market to shrink in a large scale, which is undoubtedly a big bad for the auto market.
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